The Q2 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) report includes industry analysis and market forecasts through 2035 for timber prices, logging costs, softwood lumber production, structural panels production, paper and paperboard production, forest supplies, and wood bioenergy markets. Select summary findings from the Q2 FRQ report include:
Macro and Housing: The economy grew at a 2.1% annualized pace in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% growth in Q4 2025. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased to 4.2% in Q1 2026 from 4.1% during Q4 2025. Single family starts increased 3.5% in Q1 relative to last year, while multifamily starts increased 16%.
Lumber: North American softwood lumber production fell over 7% quarter-over-quarter and over 4% year-over-year through Q4 2025. Through February 2026, year-over-year U.S. softwood lumber imports declined 23% and hardwood lumber decreased 5%.
Structural Panels (OSB & Plywood): Q1 2026 U.S. OSB prices decreased 4.4% and plywood prices increased 13.5% from Q4. An estimated $1.4 billion will be invested in the North American structural panel sector through 2029, with an associated net capacity increase of 994 million square feet. Nearly 55% of U.S. structural panel imports through February 2026 came from Canada.
Pulp & Paper: Year-to-date production of paper and paperboard fell 5.9% from 2025 to 2026. Q1 2026 packaging production fell 1.2% from Q4 2025, down 6.2% year-over-year. Printing/writing production was down 0.6% for the quarter. OCC prices were up 5.3% in Q1 and down 31.3% year-over-year. Market pulp prices were down 11% year-over-year for NBSK and up 7% for BEK. U.S. pulp exports to China and Mexico were both down over 18% year-over-year.
Wood Bioenergy: Bioenergy products that pass Forisk’s Wood Bioenergy Database screening plan to consume 94.3 million green tons per year of wood across the U.S. The South leads all regions in total projects and demand. Most bioenergy projects continue to be in the biomass-to-electricity, CHP, and pellet segments, though renewable biofuel and biochar projects are increasing. Through February 2026, U.S. wood pellet exports decreased 3% year-over-year while Canadian wood pellet exports decreased 32%. North American wood pellet capacity is expected to grow 2% in 2026, to 23.0 million tonnes.
Log & Chip Exports: Through February 2026, softwood log exports were up nearly 3% in the U.S. North and 180% in the U.S. South from February 2025 rates. Western softwood log exports were flat year-over-year. Canadian softwood log exports were up 6% year-over-year through February while total U.S. softwood log exports were up 17%. U.S. softwood chip exports through February were down 2% from last year. Canada, Japan, and Vietnam, the top three U.S. forestry commodity trade partners, imported 77% of log and chip exports from the United States.
Timberland Investments: Public timber REITs returned 4.0% YTD through April 24th after returning -13.4% in 2025. Weyerhaeuser is trading above where it ended 2025 while Rayonier is slightly below. As a sector, public timber REITs decreased 3.5% for the quarter according to the market cap weighted Forisk Timber REIT Index (FTR). 980 thousand acres of industrial timberland transactions closed in the U.S. (versus 930 thousand as of the prior FRQ) for the last four quarters. TIMOs accounted for 68% of the acreage bought, while forest industry accounted for 43% of the acreage sold.
Forest Operations: U.S. logging employment declined 3% over the last 4 quarters, led by declines in the U.S. West. Canadian employment dipped 4% year-over-year. Logging wages increased across North America, exceeding 3.5% in the U.S. and over 6% in Canada. Trucking freight shipments held flat while trucking employment fell an additional 2%, year-over-year.
Timber Markets, U.S. South: Southern stumpage prices increased for pine sawtimber by 4% but decreased for all other products in Q1 2026, according to Timber Mart-South. The 2026 forecast for sawtimber implies a 1% decrease from 2025. Pine pulpwood stumpage prices are projected to increase the most through 2030 in Mississippi and North Carolina.
Log Prices, Pacific Northwest: Domestic Douglas-fir and hemlock log prices in Washington Q1 2026 and rose in Oregon. Douglas-fir Japanese export (J-sort) prices dipped 8%, while export hemlock prices fell 1%. Logging and hauling costs increase 4% over the next 10 years for cable and ground-based logging.
Hardwood Markets, U.S. North: Forisk’s Hardwood Price Index increased 0.3% in Q4 2025, up 2.1% year-over-year. Oak logs maintained the highest 2025 stumpage prices in the Middle Atlantic and New England regions while hard maple prices were highest in the Lake States.
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