Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. "Storm" Walsh)
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 20
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4
TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 8
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
The following is the supplemental list for the 2021 hurricane season:
Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, and Will.
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Please note…when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.
Good evening everyone,
The following are satellite animations of the Atlantic basin and Africa
ATLANTIC
AFRICA
The NHC has had an area marked over the Bahamas for a few days now, however the probability for cyclone development has dropped to 10% during the next 5 days, which is down from 20% as of last night. I am trying to figure out why we are watching the area, as it still remains in a sheared environment, and under strong upper level winds, although the pattern is diffluent.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAPS
Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, both the ECMWF and GFS are in agreement that upper level winds should remain unfavorable for development, and mid level moisture will be less than favorable for development. Based on this, I do not foresee development of this area during the next 5 days. IF something were to take shape, I feel it would be baroclinic in nature. I will continue to monitor the area for any significant changes to the forecast pattern.
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
Moving forward into October, based on the recent CHI200 anomalies forecast from the JMA (which will again update on Thursday), and MJO phase space diagram forecasts from the JMA and ECMWF EPS, it appears October could be active, especially around mid month and beyond. The signals indciate mid month should go into phase 8, and then possibly 1 and 2 This is the time of the year we begin to focus away from the MDR (albeit it is still possible to see something come out of the MDR, although not of a Cape Verde origin), and look closer to the west around the Bahamas, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
JMA SEPTEMBER 30 CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST WEEK 1 (BLUE INDICATES UPWARD MOTION AT THE 200 MB LEVEL. DARKER BLUE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL)
WEEK 2
WEEK 3 AND WEEK 4
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECASTS
The following graphic indicates where the favored areas for development are in the various phases (marked by orange and red)
OCTOBER OCCURRENCES PER 100 YEARS
OCTOBER POINTS OF ORIGIN
If conditions are favorable over certain areas, we can see cyclone development form basically three different situations...a stalled cold front off the U.S. east coast or in the GOMEX, a tropical wave that survives the trek across the Atlantic, and the CAG (Central American Gyre). The CAG is basically a rather large area of cyclonic circulation with multiple vorticity areas, which brings a monsoonal flow across Central America, and into the Caribbean / GOMEX regions. These gyre's can spin up tropical cyclone activity. This is one of the reasons you see that small "spike" in the hurricane season climatology chart around mid October.
The following graphic shows pretty much the basics, and I have it linked to an article in the AMS Journals page giving an in depth explanation.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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