Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. "Storm" Walsh)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good evening everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SPC SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes should be the main threats.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAIL PROBABILITY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of the current SPC day 2 outlook, it appears energy splits into 2 different regions per the outline. Thursday morning, energy left over from the southern severe areas will be ongoing mainly over the FL/GA region. Further north, large scale upper troughing will occur, with numerous shortwave troughs forecast to rotate through the large upper trough. Over the SE, sufficient low level moisture and strong shear will support the severe threat in the morning. Storms could re-strengthen by afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. Strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible. Modeling suggests the tornado threat to be greatest over the SE from early morning to around noon. Thereafter, with the situation described, albeit the SPC only indicates a 2% probability for tornadoes over the Mid Atlantic region, modeling suggest the best threat for strong winds and isolated tornadoes may occur over a portion of NC and VA AOA 2:00 p. m. EDT, with a small lingering area over a portion of the FL. Panhandle and extreme southern GA.
Currently, I am not expecting any strong/significant tornado activity, based on model analysis. Again, it is suggested you use the SPC homepage link, to view any changes that may occur as the current day 2 outlook, becomes the day 1 outlook tomorrow.
The following outlined areas indicate where the modeling suggests the best / highest probabilities for the strongest severe weather and tornadoes could occur.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 8:00 A. M. EDT
11:00 A. M. EDT
2:00 P. M. EDT
5:00 P. M. EDT
8:00 P. M. EDT
The following NAM- WRF animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell "threshold" values, and larger values of SCP denote greater "overlap" in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
NAM – WRF STP ANIMATION (8:00 A. M. EDT MAR 31 – 8:00 P. M. CDT MAR 31)
NAM – WRF SCP ANIMATION
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
WordPress.com
No comments:
Post a Comment