Mexico Open 2023 Tips: A Maverick leads our six for Vallarta

Adam Roberts

Apr 25

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley went so close last week, picking up full places for 2nd and 3rd. Next up on the PGA Tour, he has six tips for the Mexico Open, as well as his famous comprehensive preview.

Mexico Open Tips

1.5 pts Maverick McNealy each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 33/1
1pt Emiliano Grillo each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 45/1
1pt Garrick Higgo each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 50/1
1pt Lanto Griffin each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 80/1
1pt Akshay Bhatia each way (1/5 - 6 places) - 90/1
1pt Augusto Nunez each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 125/1

We endured a bit of an agonising Sunday at the Zurich Classic last week. The team of Wyndham Clark & Beau Hossler entered the final round with the lead for us and increased their advantage early on. All while the Canadian duo of Adam Hadwin & Nick Taylor had scythed their way through the field into contention, making an incredible seven birdies on the bounce around the turn.

However, those birdies understandably dried up over the closing holes, whilst Clark/Hossler were involved in a disappointing final-round pairing with Sungjae Im & Keith Mitchell, with both teams appearing to drag each other down. This left the door wide open for Davis Riley & Nick Hardy to come through with a late rattle and collect their first PGA Tour trophies. Leaving us having to settle for silver and bronze in the process.

Recent Masters winner and world #1 Jon Rahm returns to action as a defending champion this week, as we head to Mexico for the second PGA Tour edition of the Mexico Open at the Vidanta Vallarta resort.

Latest Zurich Classic Betfred Odds

Tournament History

Though the Mexico Open was only added to the PGA Tour schedule for the first time last year, the event – or a version of it at least – has been in existence since the 1940s; boasting names such as Lee Trevino and Ben Crenshaw amongst its past winners.

In the years prior to last year's upgrade in status, the Mexico Open had been a part of various tours; from Europe's Challenge Tour to the Korn Ferry Tour and more recently, was on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica.

Jon Rahm won that first PGA Tour edition of the championship last year, firing a score of -17 to hold off the trio of Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu by one stroke; on what was a bomber-heavy leaderboard. He returns to defend this year though in much different mood to last year.

Winless for 2022 and struggling to find form with his short game, Rahm arrived on Mexico's West Coast searching for confidence and was able to gain just that to kickstart a strong finish to the year, that resulted in him signing out 2022 with back-to-back victories on the DP World Tour.

Fast forward twelve months and the Spanish bull comes in as a completely different beast. A world #1 and four-time winner so far this year; the most recent of them coming just two weeks ago when pummelling the field at Augusta. He's the man they're all aiming for in the golfing world right now and will be a seriously difficult obstacle to overcome this week.

The Course

Greg Norman's Signature Course at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort is a 7456 yard par 71; with an unusual make-up of five par 3s, four par 5s and just he nine par 4s; possessing three of each down the back nine.

The course is big and bold and home to some mammoth holes. Two of the par 5s can play to well over 600 yards (including the 661 yard 12^th) and four of the nine par 4s exceeded 500 yards over the course of the week last year.

However, this is countered by plenty of more attainable birdie chances, with the drivable par 4 7^th, the other two shorter par 5s and that quintet of par 3s not the most troublesome; all playable at below 200 yards. This mix of holes providing us with a solid test last year, evidenced by Rahm's winning score of -17.

The balance continues in the course setup. Where the wide fairways should be easy to find for most, though are protected by some strategically placed bunkers which eat into those generous landing areas; sandy waste areas providing further penalty for the most wayward off the tee.

The paspalum greens are also large, intended to be firm and possess some severe undulations, whilst it's notable that the most difficult aspect around this course last year was scrambling. Therefore it's imperative that you hit the greens; with deep, cavernous bunkers providing the bulk of the protection.

Further dangers are on offer in the shape of water, which is in-play on around 2/3 of the holes on the course and with the exposed nature of the setup, wind may well be a factor, as it was last year.

The Stats

Key Stats: SG: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Paspalum), Par 5 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring.

If you're going to sum up in the most simple terms what you need to do here, it would be to hit it and hit it far. Of the top 10 last year, eight ranked inside the top 24 in driving distance; winner, Rahm ranked 3^rd, whilst the longest hitter of the week, Cameron Champ finished 6^th. Indeed it was with driver that Rahm most excelled last year, ranking 2^nd and eight of that top 10 ranked no worse than 19^th OTT.

Rahm complimented his strong driving with solid performances across the board in other areas. Though outside of the defending champion, it was strong approach play that proved most important.

The top three iron players in the field last year all finished inside the top 10: David Lipsky in 6^th, Tony Finau in 2^nd and Aaron Wise, also in 6th; other 2^nd and 6^th place finishers, Brandon Wu and Alex Smalley too ranking inside the top 10 with their irons.

Those who have shown some form on similar paspalum putting surfaces – like we have at events such as the Mayakoba Classic, Corales Puntacana and Puerto Rico Open – are of obvious interest, whilst I'm keen to not just get strong par 5 scorers on-side, with six of last year's top 10 ranking top 5 in par 5 scoring but also, with the unusual volume of par 3s around Vidanta Vallarta, players who excel on the shortest holes are worth looking at.

Correlating Events (Courses)

Form-ties are predictably a little thin on the ground but this week's test certainly bears some resemblance to others on the PGA Tour.

Two that immediately stand out are the Corales Puntacana Championship at Corales Golf Club in the Dominican and the Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve Country Club. Both courses are generous off the tee – particularly the Corales – with paspalum grass covering from tee to green.

Tony Finau was runner-up here last year and is a past champion in Puerto Rico, whilst 6^th place finisher in Mexico last time out, Brandon Wu, has recorded 3^rd and 7^th place finishes there. Meanwhile, Alex Smalley backs up his 6^th in Mexico with a 2^nd at Corales; David Lipsky has been top 10 both here and there in the Dominican.

In addition to these two, I quite liked TPC Twin Cities, host of the 3M Open and Congaree Golf Club, which hosted the Palmetto Championship in 2021 and the CJ Cup last year. Both are wide in the fairways, encouraging players to hit driver and also rank close to this week's venue in scrambling difficulty and GIR percentages.

Last year's Mexico Open runner-up, Tony Finau, is a past winner of the 3M Open, as is 6^th place finisher Cameron Champ; whilst Kurt Kitayama, Aaron Wise and David Lipsky have each recorded top 10s both here and at Congaree.

The Weather

It's set to be a warm, sunny week in Mexico, with no rain on the forecast and temperatures close to 30 degrees over the course of the event. This open course will once again be susceptible to a strong breeze throughout the week, which could bring gusts of up to 30kmh, though that is currently stated to die down a little before Sunday's final round.

The Field

An already weak field was dealt another blow yesterday, as the Zurich Classic's successful duo, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy both withdrew from the event.

World #1 and defending champion Rahm is the clear star attraction, joined by just two other players from inside the world's top 50: #16 Tony Finau and #50 Alex Noren; just a further five from inside the top 100.

Golf Betting Odds

Selections

Jon Rahm is an obvious strong favourite this week at 13/5, with Tony Finau a not-too-shabby second-favourite at 15/2. That top two from last year will be tough to beat but we'll try and I'm keen to favour some younger, typically more fearless players who may relish going toe-to-toe with Rahm rather than shying away from the challenge, starting with Maverick McNealy.

1.5 pts Maverick McNealy each way (1/5 - 8 places)33/1

McNealy's positive start to the year was derailed by a shoulder injury, which caused to him to withdraw at Pebble Beach and the Phoenix Open. Now back fit and healthy, with some much needed reps in the bag, he can kickstart his year this week in Mexico.

McNealy returned to action at THE PLAYERS and was delighted to just make the cut there. He followed that with a 36^th in the Valspar championship – an event in which he was one shot off the lead after round one - and after a below par effort at the Match Play, he missed the cut on his latest start at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago.

However there was one particularly big positive to come out of that missed cut in the shape of his approach display. Normally a weakness in his game, in gaining 2.47 strokes over the first two rounds there, he produced his best numbers since 2020.

If we combine this with the best of his skillset, where he's an excellent, long driver, as well as one of the best putters around, we find a player well suited to this week's test.

He didn't play here last year but he has made the cut on both visits to the 3M Open, finishing 16^th in 2021 and last year finished 18^th at Congaree in the CJ Cup. A strong record in Mexico on the paspalum surfaces at Mayakoba is another big positive, where he's finished 10^th, 11^th and 12^th the last three years.

Once one of the brightest prospects in golf, as a former #1 amateur and winner of both the Ben Hogan and Haskins Awards, McNealy has a ceiling higher than many in this field. In a field weaker than any he's faced all year, he can get his year back on track in a big way this week.

1pt Emiliano Grillo each way (1/5 - 7 places)45/1

Argentina's Emiliano Grillo recorded his best finish of the year when 7^th at the RBC Heritage last time out. With the putter looking in good shape in recent weeks, coming more in-line with his solid ball-striking and possessing a book of correlating form as attractive as anyone in the field, I'm taking him to go even better in Mexico.

That 7^th place finish was the one bright spot in a largely disappointing year for Grillo. Though we did see how good shape his game was in when he finished 39^th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational four starts prior, as he led the field tee-to-green but was let down with the putter. Something he's rectified somewhat in recent weeks, gaining strokes in his last three recorded starts on the greens, including a top 20 putting performance in that 7^th place finish at Harbour Town.

Grillo has consistently been one of the very best ball-strikers around over his years on the PGA Tour and though the quality of his approach play has regressed over the last couple of years, he's still solid and drives the ball as well as he always has, ranking 38^th this season and by no means lacking in power.

Despite this, it is notable how the putter engineered his 33^rd place finish here last year, ranking top 25 on the greens; a performance that came off the back of four missed cuts, rather than the 7^th place finish he recorded last time before this week's event.

Indeed Grillo has been a regular performer on paspalum, recording 2^nd and 3^rd place finishes in Puerto Rico, as well as a 6^th place finish at the Corales. Additionally, he has an excellent record at TPC Twin Cities, having also finished 2^nd and 3^rd there.

Grillo knows what it takes to win on the PGA Tour, having taken home the title at the Fortinet Championship on his first start on the tour as a full member in 2015. Though no more victories have followed, he's often been in contention and with all the boxes he ticks this week, I'm expecting another contending performance this week.

1pt Garrick Higgo each way (1/5 - 7 places)50/1

Garrick Higgo is having a quietly steady year on the PGA Tour, recording just two missed cuts in his eleven starts. All of his game has fired throughout the year at some point and as one of the stronger par 5 scorers in the field – ranking 33^rd - this bomber can produce the type of fireworks to put it up to the couple of big guys at the top.

These fireworks were on display in that astounding five-tournament stretch in 2021, that saw Higgo go from talented DP World Tour player to PGA Tour winner; winning two events in the Canary Islands before heading stateside and winning the Palmetto Championship at correlating Congaree on his first ever start on the PGA Tour.

It's fair to say that this sudden jolt up the world rankings and into the golfing spotlight for Higgo came a little too fast, as he spent much of the rest of 2021, as well as last season, still trying to come to terms with it but has been much more comfortable this season.

He finished 3^rd in the Sanderson Farms Championship in the wraparound season at the end of last year and then kicked off 2023 in similar form, finishing 11^th at The AmEx and 20^th at Pebble Beach in two of his first three starts of the year.

Form hasn't been quite as eye-catching since, though his game has been ticking over nicely, with Higgo ranking amongst the 20 best players in this field tee-to-green over recent starts and he can take advantage of this week's weak field to win on debut in Mexico.

1pt Lanto Griffin each way (1/5 - 7 places)80/1

After missing the second part of last year due to undergoing back surgery, Lanto Griffin returned to action at the start of this year. Though looking solid right out of the blocks when making his first three cuts, his form took a jump at the Texas Open two starts ago when finishing 15^th and I'm taking him to bounce back from a missed cut at the RBC Heritage on his last start this week.

Griffin finished 15^th there in Texas – which came after a solid 16^th on the Korn Ferry Tour on his previous start – and it was a week in which he looked really good across the board; ranking 10^th in GIR, 15^thoff-the-tee, 18^th in putting and 26^th in scrambling. All areas which he has typically excelled in since stepping up to the PGA Tour.

Possessing plenty of length too, it's no surprise to see that before his back surgery last year, Griffin finished 15^thhere thanks to a flying final-round 65, where he hit the ball excellently, ranking 6^th with driver and 8^th in GIR.

As a winner in Houston, he's not adverse to playing in the wind and if able to put to bed that performance at Harbour Town last time out, he can take another post-surgery step in the right direction this week.

1pt Akshay Bhatia each way (1/5 - 6 places)90/1

Another player with proven form on paspalum is the talented Akshay Bhatia. He won The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic on the surfaces on the KFT early last year, returning to finish 4^th there this year and was also 7^th in The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic, which too uses paspalum.

His liking for these surfaces has been further evidenced on the PGA Tour this year, where he finished 2^nd in the Puerto Rico Open, leading the field on the greens and was 24^th at the Corales.

Form outside of those two results hasn't been as strong as some would've expected or than he'd promised, though we have seen what he's all about.

Bhatia is a good driver, possessing a combination of both length and accuracy off the tee but it's with the irons he's been showing most form recently, ranking as the 14^th best approach player in this field in most current form.

Not just that 2^nd in Puerto Rico that gives us evidence of his ability to perform at this level, as Bhatia finished 9^th in the Fortinet Championship in 2020 when still a teenager; by no means coming from nowhere as he was an extremely talented amateur, reaching as high as #4 in the world before turning pro in 2019 when still just 17-year-old.

He's the type of precocious, nerveless young player that won't fear teeing it up alongside the world #1 this week and I'm taking him to put up another strong showing on paspalum in Mexico.

1pt Augusto Nunez each way (1/5 - 7 places)125/1

Our second Argentinian of the week brings me to big-hitting Augusto Nunez. After initially struggling with this step up in grade at the end of last year, the three-time PGA Tour Latinoamerica winner has been much more consistent in 2023 and can produce his best PGA Tour finish to date this week.

He earned this stab at his rookie PGA Tour season via the Korn Ferry Tour last year, where he enjoyed an excellent year, ranking 6^th in the regular season standings and recording nine top 10 finishes; including five straight finishes of 6^th or better from the middle of June to the end of July.

This breakthrough came after a couple of seasons previous on the KFT, an opportunity itself that came following a remarkable year on the Latinoamerica tour in 2019, where Nunez won twice and finished runner-up twice; hitting the top 10 a further seven times and never finishing outside the top 20 over the course of his fifteen starts on the tour that year.

He missed six of his seven cuts in the wraparound season last year but has come on in spades this year, making eight of his ten cuts and putting up his best finish to date when 15^th in the Puerto Rico Open.

Nunez is among the top 25 longest drivers on tour this season and is a top 50 par 3 scorer; also possessing a neat and tidy game around the greens.

His length off the tee makes him a player here and aside from that 15^th in Puerto Rico, Nunez finished 2^nd at the Corales when it was still a KFT event in 2017; both courses with grass similar to what Nunez would've grown up playing and should aid in making him feel even more at home this week.