Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley had two more full places at the Mexico Open but can he pull in another win this week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has five selections, as well as his usual comprehensive preview!
Wells Fargo Championship Tips
- 2.5 pts Jordan Spieth each way (1/5 - 6 places) - 20/1
- 1pt Max Homa each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 25/1
- 1pt Gary Woodland each way (1/5 - 6 places) - 70/1
- 1pt Adam Scott each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 90/1
- 0.5 pts Chez Reavie each way (1/5 - 7 places) - 400/1
Maybe next year we should turn the Mexico Open into a straightforward, winner-takes-all match play event between Tony Finau and Jon Rahm, as both players occupied the top two positions on the leaderboard at Vidanta Vallarta for the second consecutive year last week. This time, Finau turned the table on the Spaniard, beating him into 2nd as Rahm had done to him a year earlier; claiming his sixth PGA Tour title (and fifth in less than two years) with an impressive three-stroke victory.
With two weeks to go before Oak Hill and the PGA Championship – our second major of the year – this week we should get some real clues as to potential challengers there, as the players head to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship; a usually challenging event at a course that is no stranger to hosting majors itself, having staged the 2017 version of the PGA Championship.
Latest Wells Fargo Championship Betfred Odds
Tournament History
The Wells Fargo Championship (previously the Wachovia Championship from 2003-2008 and the Quail Hollow Championship from 2009-2010) was first held in 2003 and with the exception of 2020 due to covid, has taken place every year since.
Quail Hollow Club has hosted all but two editions, with the 2017 edition held at Eagle Point Golf Club because of Quail Hollow's PGA Championship hosting duties and last year, TPC Potomac stepped in to stage the event, with the usual host readying itself for the President's Cup.
David Toms won that inaugural event in 2003, shooting -10 to fire himself to a two-shot win over Robert Gamez. This challenging scoring has been replicated since, where the winning score has only exceeded -16 once, when Rory McIlroy shot an incredible -21 for a seven-stroke victory in 2015; a performance which sees him hold both the record in the event for lowest winning score and largest winning margin.
That was the second of Rory's three wins in the event, with the most recent coming in 2021 and his first in 2010. He was the only multiple-winner of the Wells Fargo Championship up until last year, when 2019 champion Max Homa doubled up his Wells Fargo tally, albeit away from Quail Hollow at TPC Potomac; Tiger Woods, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler amongst the list of other players to taste success here.
Homa returns to defend his title back at Quail Hollow this year, in this newly Designated Event. He's joined by a typically strong field of challengers, many who will be looking to stake their claim for major success in two-weeks' time.
The Course
Originally designed by George Cobb in 1961 and going through alterations by Tom Fazio in the years since (most notably in 1998 and 2016), Quail Hollow Club is a par 71 measuring 7538 yards and famed for its "Green Mile" closing holes; one of the most challenging finishes on the PGA Tour.
This makes up part of one of the most major championship-like tests on the PGA Tour's regular season calendar, with the Wells Fargo Championship possessing an average winning score of -13.3 over the last ten renewals that have been staged at Quail Hollow. Virtually every aspect of playing here ranks amongst the most challenging on tour.
The predominantly doglegged fairways rank inside the top 10 most difficult to find on the PGA Tour, with a mixture of more generous landing areas countered by tighter driving holes. However, despite some strategically placed bunkers that can prove penal, as well as potential tree trouble around the largely tree-lined course, the rough aside the fairways isn't too thick and finding the relatively large, quick and undulating poa overseeded (on bermudagrass base) greens isn't overly difficult should you miss the short grass; ranking around average on tour for finding greens when missing the fairways.
This is the only hint of any kind of respite around the course, with a bright spotlight shined on every other area.
Though large, the aforementioned greens will be set up to play firm and fast, with run-off areas and false fronts repelling the less precise approaches and bunkers that may be scarce in number but large in size proving particularly punishing.
They rank as the 8th most difficult greens to find on the PGA Tour, which is especially troublesome when you take into account it's the 5th most challenging scrambling course.
Finding the greens is only half the battle, with the severity of challenge that is on show when missing the greens amped up further when you find them; the undulating putting surfaces at Quail Hollow ranking as the most difficult to putt on tour.
Despite these obstacles, there are plenty of scoreable risk/reward holes, with all three of the par 5s reachable for most in the field and two potentially drivable par 4s on offer on the 8th and 14th holes. Though this is balanced with a collection of otherwise demanding par 4s, five of them stretching out to over 480 yards, two over 500.
This mixture is on offer in a thrilling closing stretch, where the majority of the water that is in-play around the course (seven holes) comes into force; a danger on each of the final five holes.
The drivable par 4 14th and the par 5 15th are both dominated by water, with anything from eagle to double-bogey+ a possibility. Still, it at least gives you the opportunity to get some birdies on the board before playing the brutal "Green Mile" holes.
After the excitement of the risk/reward 14th and 15th, you move on to the 506 yard 16th. Though you're hitting a drive into one of the wider fairways on the course, there's a strategic bunker in the fairway to the right and water to the left. Find the short grass and your task gets no easier, with a large bunker protecting the right-hand side of the long, angled green and water long and left.
Escape that hole unscathed and you arrive on the demanding par 3 17th. With water long, short and left, many players choose to bail out to the right side of the green, though with a run-off the further right you go, you could be left with the unenviable task of a chip across the green back towards the water.
You've got through 16 and 17 with your lead still intact and must now face the brutish uphill closing hole. Though the landing area is generous, the fairway is protected by a fairway bunker and dense trees to the right and a creak that hugs the entire left-hand side of the hole, right up to the large, sloped green which is further protected by two large bunkers to the right.
The Stats
Key Stats: SG: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Greens-in-Regulation, Scrambling, Putting (poa overseeded bermudagrass)
With a recent winner's list at Quail Hollow that includes Rory McIlroy, Max Homa and Jason Day - as well as Justin Thomas in that 2017 PGA Championship - it's clear that power off-the-tee can take you a long way at this course.
When Rory won in 2021, his closest challengers included Keith Mitchell and Viktor Hovland in 3rd and Gary Woodland in 5th; all of them ranking 11th or higher in driving distance. Not just power proving important; controlling that power in an all-round strong driving performance also key, with each of that top 5 ranking no worse than 18th off-the-tee.
Though evidence wasn't as strong in 2019, Max Homa and Justin Rose in 1st and 3rd are both good with driver and not lacking in distance, whilst in 2018 when Jason Day won, the top 4 all ranked top 15 in driving distance and in 2015, Rory dominated with driver; Patrick Rodgers in 2nd also strong and long with the club. Other past winners such as JB Holmes and Sean O'Hair further emphasising this.
Though strong iron play isn't always a necessity for winners, with Jason Day in 2018 and James Hahn in 2015 particularly reliant on their short game skills, it's a regular feature on leaderboards.
Indeed, Rory's emphatic win in 2015 came with combined ball-striking quality, also ranking 1st in GIR and 2nd in approach, whilst he wasn't too shabby with his irons last year either, ranking 2nd for GIR and 10th in approach.
Runner-up, Abraham Ancer topped the rankings in both areas; with Keith Mitchell and Viktor Hovland in 3rd complimenting their quality driving with the irons.
Max Homa was solid in approach in 2019, ranking 12th, whilst Joel Dahmen in 2nd ranked 2nd in GIR and 4th in approach; seven of the top 10 that year ranked top 10 in approach.
Behind Jason Day in 2018 was Nick Watney, who led the field in greens hit, whilst in behind James Hahn in 2016 were Roberto Castro and Justin Rose, who ranked 3rd and 2nd for approach respectively; Rose also leading the field in GIR.
Every recent winner has scrambled well. Rory led the field in this area in 2021; Max Homa ranked 6th in 2019, with Justin Rose in 3rd the 2nd-best scrambler. Jason Day was 2nd in scrambling when winning in 2018 and Rory 3rd when taking the title in 2015.
Finally, the speed and undulations of these green complexes will almost certainly need to see the winner perform well with the putter. Rory was 3rd when winning in 2021, Homa led the field on the greens in 2019, Day ranked 2nd in 2018 and Hahn 9th in 2016. With many other strong putting performances dotted around the main challengers.
Ultimately, it's of little surprise to find that quality all-round – the type of performance that it usually takes to win a major – is needed to win this event that has often proven a good guide to major performers.
Correlating Events (Courses)
Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines)
Torrey Pines (South) is another regular season course that has had the honour of hosting majors, with two US Opens. Though they play one round in the Farmers at the easier North Course, the mammoth South Course hosts the other three and it puts a similar challenge on every part of your game, such as the players will encounter this week.
Jason Day and Max Homa have both won at the two courses, whilst Justin Rose, Nick Watney and Luke List are all Farmers winners with excellent records at Quail Hollow; Rose has finished 3rd in two of the four most recent renewals, Watney has a runner-up finish and List two top 10s.
Others with form-ties include Kyle Stanley, who has a 2nd there and two top 10s here; Pat Perez has finished 2nd and 4th at Torrey Pines and has a very strong record here, including multiple top 10s; Kevin Streelman has finished 3rd there and has multiple top 10s here; whilst Patrick Rodgers has a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow and has recorded finishes of 4th and 9th in California.
Genesis Invitational (Riviera CC)
Staying in California with Riviera. It too has hosted the PGA Championship - back in 1983 and 1995 - and presents a very similar ball-striking test; where it's tree-lined fairways are comparably difficult to find and GIR percentages - both from on and off the fairways – are also closely matched.
Max Homa, James Hahn and JB Holmes have each won at both courses; Joel Dahmen has a top 5 there to go with his 2nd here in 2019 and Keith Mitchell has a 5th, complimenting his excellent record here, having finished 3rd and 8th in just three visits.
Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)
Over to the East Coast and Bay Hill is a similarly lengthy course that is one of the most demanding tests on tour very much belonging on that list of major-like tests. It ranks closely in difficulty across the board, both in ball-striking and with the pressure it puts on your short game.
Rory McIlroy and Jason Day have won both events, whilst Justin Rose has finished 2nd; as have Bryson DeChambeau (4th in the 2018 Wells Fargo) and Viktor Hovland, who was 3rd last time they came here in 2021.
Jason Day and Keith Mitchell both make another appearance with top 5s at Bay Hill, as do Kevin Streelman and Patrick Rodgers, who have finished top 10.
Honda Classic (PGA National)
PGA National is a shorter and more exposed course but as one of the toughest short-game courses on tour, as well as possessing similar percentages for fairways and greens hit as here at Quail Hollow, it has developed some strong form-ties.
Rory and Rickie Fowler have won both events, whilst Justin Thomas – the 2017 PGA Champion here – is a past Honda winner.
Keith Mitchell also has a win at PGA National; Lucas Glover has two 4th place finishes there and a win here; Luke List has finished runner-up there.
Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)
Many major winners go well at TPC Scottsdale. It's another place where strong drivers typically perform and possesses some of the most difficult greens on tour; ranking only 4th to Quail Hollow.
Rickie Fowler and JB Holmes have won both events, whilst Kyle Stanley also has a win there; as have Gary Woodland, who has finished top 5 twice in the Wells Fargo and Webb Simpson, who was 2nd here in 2015.
Houston Open (Memorial Park Golf Course)
Memorial Park is a lengthy course which challenges every area of your game, possessing similar averages to this week's venue in every area, from GIR percentages to short-game difficulty.
It has only hosted three renewals of the Houston Open and form-ties are a little thin on the ground, though Joel Dahmen, Justin Rose and Keith Mitchell have all gone well there.
The Weather
Conditions look kind this week in North Carolina, with little in the way of wind and no adverse weather currently forecast. Chilly mornings look to be the biggest concern posed by the elements currently.
The Field
With the top two players in the world (Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler) skipping the Wells Fargo, it's three-time winner and world #3 Rory McIlroy who is the star attraction this week in what is still an incredibly strong field. He's joined by a further five players from inside the top 10: #4 Patrick Cantlay, #5 Xander Schauffele, #6 Matt Fitzpatrick, #7 Max Homa and #10 Jordan Spieth; with all players ranked 11th-20th also in attendance.
Jason Day and Justin Thomas are another two former Quail Hollow winners playing this week, whilst at the opposite end of the scale Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala will get their first shot at Quail Hollow in a stroke play event; for all Morikawa, Kim and Young are amongst eighteen players that played here in the President's Cup last year.
Golf Betting Odds
Selections
The betting is headed by Rory McIlroy at 7/1, as he makes his first start since missing the cut in The Masters. Patrick Cantlay comes next at 12s, then Tony Finau and Xander Schaufelle at 14/1 round off the leading quartet in the market.
It is in fact Schauffele who appealed most of this leading bunch, though not as much as Jordan Spieth just behind, who goes in as this week's headline selection.
2.5 pts Jordan Spieth each way (1/5 - 6 places)20/1
We last saw Spieth losing out in a playoff to Matt Fitzpatrick at Harbour Town three weeks ago, where he let a few chances slide by that would've seen him take home the trophy for the second year on the bounce. However, despite ultimately ending in disappointment, this was the latest result in an excellent book of recent form for the three-time major winner and with him starting to show some much more positive form on the greens, he looks a danger this week.
Prior to his 2nd place finish in the Heritage, Spieth finished 4th in The Masters, 3rd in the Valspar and 4th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational over his five most recent starts; a 6th place finish in Phoenix earlier in the year meaning he's finished top 6 five times in just eleven starts this year.
All areas of his game have been firing, with him ranking 4th in approach, 7th in putting, 7th tee-to-green and 9th around-the-greens in this field over the last twenty rounds played, whilst he's also been putting up positive strokes-gained numbers with the driver; possessing plenty of power that should enable him to handle this lengthy course.
This was on show last year, as Spieth put up a perfect record in the President's Cup, winning all five of his matches and though he hasn't played a stroke play event here since the 2017 PGA Championship, his form in those years was solid enough, finishing 32nd and 28th on his two visits. His suitability for the challenge is emphasised further with a strong record at Bay Hill, where he's twice finished 4th; as well as good records in the Genesis and in Phoenix, recording a top 4 and multiple top 10s across both.
Spieth has won multiple times in the weeks leading up to a major throughout his career: the John Deere Classic the week prior to The Open in 2015, the Charles Schwab Challenge two starts before the US Open in 2016, the Travelers Championship on his most recent start ahead of the 2018 Open and most recently, winning in Texas in 2021, the week before The Masters.
Signs are there that he's close to winning for the first time this year and at a course that could prove a good pointer to the PGA Championship in two weeks, he can hone his skills in the best possible way, by taking home the trophy at Quail Hollow.
1pt Max Homa each way (1/5 - 7 places)25/1
Two-time Wells Fargo champion Max Homa's form appears to have tailed off a little over recent starts but I'm not convinced there's too much to worry about and am expecting him to bounce back this week.
After a superb start to the season for Homa, where he won the Farmers, finished 2nd in the Genesis Invitational and top 10 at THE PLAYERS, he's gone 43-MC-MC on his three latest starts.
The 43rd came at Augusta, a place that he just hasn't figured out yet, whilst the two missed cuts came in the following two weeks; first at Harbour Town, a place where he's only played once before and finished 41st, whilst last time out he missed the cut when paired with Collin Morikawa at the Zurich Classic; all efforts that are easy enough to forgive.
This is because – as he showed in 2019 when winning – he has a game well suited to what the players are going to face this week. Homa has particularly excelled in approach this season, where he ranks 9th and has shown big improvements in the short game over recent years, leading to him ranking 10th on the greens and 20th in scrambling.
The only concern with him is that this typically strong driver has hit a bad patch of form off the tee, losing strokes on his last four starts; something he'll need to get back on track this week.
I'm confident he can do that, as not only do we have that win in 2019 as evidence for his ability to perform here but wins at the Genesis and Farmers strengthen his case, as do strong efforts in Phoenix and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's simply a player who has made a habit of performing at big-boy courses and I'm expecting him to produce a strong effort as defending champion this week.
1pt Gary Woodland each way (1/5 - 6 places)70/1
Gary Woodland is one of the best ball-strikers in this week's field and with some strong form figures here, along with many at correlating courses, he looks primed for a positive showing in North Carolina.
So far this season, Woodland ranks 13th off-the-tee – where he possesses plenty of power and is currently combining it with accuracy - 23rd in approach and 36th in GIR; a quality of game he's replicated over most recent starts, ranking as the 7th best driver in this field when calculating performance over the last fifty rounds and 9th in approach.
This has taken him to a solid book of form for 2023, where he's missed just two cuts out of ten; recording bests of 9th in the Genesis and 14th at The Masters.
The short game has stopped him progressing further up leaderboards, though he has putted well at Augusta and Harbour Town on two of his three latest starts but will have to overcome a poor week on the greens in Mexico last week.
That is something I'm expecting him to do, as he's got a typically good record on these greens; part of the reason he possesses such a good record here. Woodland has missed just one cut in nine visits; gaining strokes on the greens in five of them.
His best finish came in 2015, where he finished 4th thanks to a field-leading putting performance, whilst on his last visit in 2021, he finished 5th; recording three further top 25s, including in the 2017 PGA Championship.
Additionally, as a winner in Phoenix, runner-up in the Honda Classic and with top 10s at the API, Houston Open, Genesis Invitational and Farmers Insurance Open, Woodland has a compelling book of correlating form; something he can use to his advantage to record a first win since he was crowned US Open champion at Pebble Beach in 2019.
1pt Adam Scott each way (1/5 - 8 places)90/1
Though Adam Scott's form figures appear underwhelming, there's been plenty of encouragement in his performances this year, where he hasn't missed a cut and is driving the ball particularly well. Added to the fact he looked to have found something in approach last time out at Harbour Town, this class-act can find a best finish of the year at Quail Hollow.
He's not missing a cut in his eight starts this year, however, Scott has only recorded one top 25, when 21st in the Sony Open back in January. The reason that he's struggled to achieve a more lofty position on the leaderboard is undoubtedly down to the irons – an area in which he's ranked among the best in the world during his career.
The driver is in excellent shape, seeing Scott rank 28th on tour this season, whilst he also hasn't lost that power, ranking 41st in driving distance. The putter has been solid enough, as he's gained strokes in five of his eight starts and he's started to find more touch with the short game, ranking 10th in this field around-the-greens over the last 20 rounds.
In contrast, Scott ranks an unfathomable 165th in approach this season, though last time out in the 3rd round of the RBC Heritage, he produced his best iron display since the 2022 Memorial Tournament, gaining 2.8 strokes; hopefully a level of performance he can carry over into this week.
The Australian hasn't played here since 2018 and has course form that is either one extreme or the other; where he typically misses the cut or produces an excellent performance, such as his 3rd place finish in 2006.
His book of correlating form adds encouragement. Scott is a two-time winner at Riviera (most recently in 2020) and has also won the Honda Classic. A 2nd in the Farmers Insurance Open and top 5 at Bay Hill further strengthens his case and if he can start to turn things around with the irons after that eye-catching round last time out, this major winner looks a nice price for a big effort this week.
0.5 pts Chez Reavie each way (1/5 - 7 places)400/1
I did like the look of Cameron Champ after his top 10 in Mexico last week but he's shortening all the time and instead I'm going to take a chance on Chez Reavie at a whopping price. He's found some form over recent starts and as a player who makes up for a lack of power with a strong long-iron game, he can continue that form this week.
Reavie went into the Texas Open three starts ago off the back of six missed cuts in a row but turned his year around at TPC San Antonio, finishing 6th thanks to finding his best putting and approach performances of the year, where he ranked 9th and 13th respectively.
He carried this form into his next start, when 11th at the RBC Heritage in a stellar field, ranking 3rd in approach and in gaining 1.83 strokes a round produced his best iron display since the 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship.
For what Reavie lacks in explosiveness off the tee, he makes up for with ultra-accuracy, ranking 8th in driving accuracy. He manages this at the expense of power but has found plenty of strong efforts on longer courses due to the quality of his long irons; which we can see in his ranking of 12th in proximity from 175-200 yards this year.
His strong efforts at longer courses include some good finishes here, with Reavie producing two top 25s at Quail Hollow over his three most recent starts. Good records in Phoenix, where he's finished 2nd and 4th, as well as Riviera, at which he's hit the top 10 on three occasions, are added positives.
He's a three-time PGA Tour winner, most recently taking home the Barracuda Championship last year. This may seem like too big a task for him but it's an event with a history of surprise/long-priced winners and contenders; if Reavie keeps up the good work he's been showing with the long irons he can surprise many this week.
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