| The Q1 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) report includes industry analysis and market forecasts through 2035 for timber prices, logging costs, softwood lumber production, structural panels production, paper and paperboard production, forest supplies, and wood bioenergy markets. Select summary findings from the Q1 FRQ report include:
Macro and Housing: The economy grew at a 4.4% annualized pace in Q3 2025, up from 3.8% in Q2 2025. Based on data through November, the unemployment rate increased to 4.5%. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.1% in Q4 2025 from 4.3% during Q3 2024. Single family starts declined 1% through October 2025, while multifamily starts increased 18%.
Lumber: North American softwood lumber production fell nearly 4% quarter-over-quarter and increased 3% year-over-year for the first three quarters in 2025. Through November 2025, year-over-year North American softwood lumber imports declined 9%. Sawmills in the U.S. South reduced capacity by 1.2 billion board feet (BBFT) in 2025.
Structural Panels (OSB & Plywood): Q4 2025 U.S. OSB prices increased 5.8% and plywood prices decreased 0.6% from Q3. About $1.7 billion will be invested in North America’s structural panel sector through 2027, with an associated net capacity increase of 861 million square feet. Over 45% of U.S. structural panel imports through November 2025 came from Canada.
Pulp & Paper: Paper and paperboard production fell 3.6% from 2024 to 2025. Packaging production fell 4.8% from Q3, down 3.5% year-over-year. Printing/writing production was down 7.5% for the quarter. OCC prices dropped 24.7% in Q4, and down 37.4% year-over-year. Market pulp prices fell more than 5% year-over-year. U.S. pulp exports to China in Q4 were up 1.2% year-over-year.
Wood Bioenergy: Bioenergy products that pass Forisk’s Wood Bioenergy Database screening plan to consume 99.3 million green tons per year of wood across the country. The U.S. South leads all regions in total projects and demand. Most bioenergy projects continue to be in the biomass-to-electricity, CHP, and pellet segments, though renewable hydrocarbon projects are increasing. Through November 2025, U.S. wood pellet exports increased 2% year-over-year while Canadian wood pellet exports increased 9% through November. North American wood pellet capacity is expected to grow 6.3% in 2026, to 22.7 million tonnes.
Log & Chip Exports: Through November 2025, softwood log exports increased nearly 10% in the U.S. North and 42% in the South from November 2024. Western softwood log exports decreased 49%. Canadian softwood exports were down 8% year-over-year through November while U.S. softwood log exports were down 19%. U.S. softwood chip exports through November were up 1% over last year. 81% of log and chip exports from the United States are imported by Canada, Japan, and Vietnam, the top three U.S. forestry commodity trade partners.
Timberland Investments: Public timber REITs returned 7.8% YTD through January 30th after returning -13.4% in 2025. All three timber REITs are trading above where they ended 2025. As a sector, timber REITs increased 5.2% for the quarter per the market cap weighted Forisk Timber REIT Index (FTR). 930 thousand acres of industrial timberland transactions closed in the U.S. (versus just over 1.0 million as of the prior FRQ) for the last four quarters. TIMOs accounted for 60% of the acreage bought, while private sellers accounted for 44.0% of the acreage sold.
Forest Operations: Logging employment declined 3% over the last 4 quarters, led by declines in the U.S. South and West. U.S. logging employment shrank by 20% over the last 10 years, matching losses incurred from 2005-2015. Trucking employment fell another 2% year-over-year, despite steady freight demand.
Timber Markets, U.S. South: Stumpage prices decreased for all pine products in Q4 2025, and increased for hardwood sawtimber and pulpwood, according to Timber Mart-South. The 2025 forecast for pine sawtimber implies a 0.4% decrease from 2025. Pine pulpwood stumpage prices are projected to increase the most through 2030 in Alabama and Mississippi.
Log Prices, Pacific Northwest: Domestic Douglas-fir log prices fell 4% quarter-over-quarter in Oregon and Washington. Douglas-fir Japanese export (J-sort) prices dipped 4%, while export hemlock prices fell 1%. Logging and hauling costs increase 3% over the next 10 years for cable and ground-based logging.
Hardwood Markets, U.S. North: Forisk’s Hardwood Price Index increased 6.3% in Q3 2025, up 2.1% year-over-year. Northern hardwood log exports declined for nearly all species over the past for years, with white oak the lone exception.
To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) subscription, click here or contact Nick DiLuzio (ndiluzio@forisk.com). | 
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