Betfred TV's Matt Hulmes's runner-by-runner guide for Europe's richest horse race - plus he shares his idea of the winner at Longchamp on Sunday

The 100th running of the Arc looks an absolute cracker, with 15 runners heading to post for the £2.5m first prize.

As always, the draw plays a huge part for this race, with a wide berth not ideal. Of the 21 renewals this century, only five winners have come from a double-figure stall, while stall six has produced five victors alone.

Here's my runner-by-runner guide for the big one at Longchamp this weekend.

 

TORQUATOR TASSO finished just behind last year's Arc runner-up In Swoop in the 2020 German Derby and won a Baden-Baden Group 1 a few weeks ago - but that was weak for the grade and he looks to have a tall order on his first start outside of Germany.

DEEP BOND is one of two Japanese runners, a nation who have targeted Arc glory for a number of years with agonising near misses. He was a good second in the big Tenno Sho back in May, before winning a recognised trial in the Prix Foy three weeks ago, beating Broome. He's well-drawn in five and the assistance of Mikael Barzalona in the plate makes him a lively outsider.

BROOME finally landed an elusive Group 1 in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud back in July under an excellent Colin Keane ride from the front. He was, however, put in his place by Adayar in the King George and I see no reason why he should turn the Prix Foy form around with Deep Bond.

TARNAWA is a marvellous mare who rounded off an unbeaten four-year-old season, during which she won the Prix De L'Opera on this very card, with victory in the Breeders' Cup. She looked to be as good as ever when chasing home St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes despite being carried across the track and Christophe Soumillon is on board bidding for a third Arc success.

LOVE, last season's dual Classic heroine, was fancied for the 2020 renewal but ground went against her before the feed issue that marred last year's race for the O'Brien team. She looked primed for another big season when returning with a battling Royal Ascot success but was beaten by Adayar in the King George and narrowly denied in a Group 2 on Irish Champions weekend. She has a bit to prove but has Frankie Dettori on board, twenty five years after his Magnificent Seven at Ascot.

RAABIHAH was fifth in last year's renewal behind stablemate Sottsass and this looks a stronger race. Beaten on her first three starts this season, she returned to form with a win over this trip in a Group 1 at Deauville in August and trainer Jean-Claude Rouget claims she has had a similar season to last year's winner - slow to start but peaking at the right time. She's interesting if that is the case, but looks to have more on her plate then twelve months ago from the widest stall of all.

CHRONO GENESIS is the second runner from the Land of the Rising Sun whose form can be evaluated courtesy of a close second in the Dubai Sheema Classic behind Mishriff. That neck defeat, in receipt of 4lbs, ties in closely with Adayar who beat the same horse by just under two lengths in receipt of 8lbs. She has the services of Oisin Murphy in the plate who was on board for an excellent piece of work midweek. A lay-off of 98 days and a wide draw in 14 are negatives, but she must have a massive chance of ending the Japanese hoodoo.

MOJO STAR outran his odds of 50/1 when runner-up in the Derby (ahead of Hurricane Lane) while still a maiden and went on to finish a well-held fifth in the Irish equivalent behind his old rival before easily landing a maiden at Newbury. He stepped up again to be second in the St Leger, but once again had Hurricane Lane in front. He would be a surprise winner.

BABY RIDER is one of just four runners for the home team and looks to have a tall task. Nine lengths behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris and second in the Prix Foy isn't, for me at least, enough to be of interest - while a draw in 13 also tempers enthusiasm.

ADAYAR was a surprising but emphatic Derby winner, who proved that was no fluke when seeing off subsequent Juddmonte International winner Mishriff in the King George at Ascot. He's the choice of jockey William Buick over stablemate Hurricane Lane who arguably has equal credentials. His draw in 11 isn't ideal, but not insurmountable. He has leading claims.

HURRICANE LANE, along with Adayar, gives Charlie Appleby a very strong hand. His only defeat this season came in the Derby when seven lengths behind his stable companion. He then flew home to land the Irish Derby, before streaking away to win the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance. He proved his extreme stamina when romping away with the St Leger, and bids to become the first horse to ever win that Classic and the Arc. He acts on all ground and is well-drawn in stall 2, so has a major chance.

SEALIWAY is a fascinating contender who will be having his first run over this trip so has stamina to prove. Runaway winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac on this card last year before a close fifth at the Breeders' Cup. Slow start to this season but chased home St Mark's Basilica in the French Derby when last seen and not discounted if staying the trip.

ALENQUER represents a lively outsider who beat Adayar on seasonal debut at Sandown before winning easily on soft ground at Royal Ascot. That form hasn't amounted to much, but better than his third in the Grand Prix De Paris when hampered by a wide draw and never competitive. He was staying on that day behind Hurricane Lane and ran as well as could be expected down in trip when chasing home Mishriff at York. Back up in trip, softer ground and a good draw in stall eight could see him reach the frame at a big price.

BUBBLE GIFT is another who also ran in the Grand Prix de Paris and just held Baby Rider in the Prix Foy here three weeks ago. His form is some way short of the requirement to land an Arc although his trainer, Mikel Delzangles, has seen more improvement since his trial win - there needs to be plenty though.

SNOWFALL looks to be the leading hope of Aidan O'Brien, who is looking for a third Arc de Triomphe. She absolutely routed the field in the English and Irish Oaks before hosing up in the Yorkshire Oaks. This isn't a vintage crop of three-year-old fillies though, and she found one too good in the Prix Vermeille three weeks ago over this course and distance. Ryan Moore is back on board and has been handed a decent draw, but overall perception is she is the best of a bad bunch of fillies.

 

VERDICT

This looks like a fascinating renewal of the Arc.

The runner with the least to answer seems to be Hurricane Lane who has been given a great draw, is uncomplicated and has already won over the course and distance. I will keep the faith though with Japanese raider CHRONO GENESIS.

Although her draw in box 14 is far from ideal, it has produced two winners this century so it can be done. Her close second to Mishriff in Dubai ties in with the form of Adayar and yet she is three times the price.

She can end the long wait for the prize to head east.

Alenquer is the best of those at bigger prices. He was undone by the draw and tactics behind Hurricane Lane in June but ran a cracker on quicker ground and a shorter trip at York in August. Give underfoot and a rise in trip can see him sneak some place money.

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