Newmarket stages the 2000 Guineas - the first Classic of the Flat season - on Saturday (16:40). Here's my two for what looks a cracking renewal.
2000 Guineas Tips
- Chaldean @ 11/2
- Royal Scotsman @ 8/1
Bet on the 2000 Guineas with Betfred here
At this early stage of the season, I'm often looking for horses who've already had a run and, in theory, are fitter than most - however, I'm ditching that tactic for the 2000 Guineas. The reason? Only two horses since 2011 have won the race having had a prep run. Those horses? Frankel, no less, and Night Of Thunder.
Another crucial stat is that in the last 25 years there's only been one winner from 34 runners who had never raced over 7f+ prior. Ominous for the well-fancied Little Big Bear, Sakheer and Noble Style.
If you apply that criteria to this year's renewal you're left with just six from the original field of 14 - namely Auguste Rodin, Chaldean, Royal Scotsman, Silver Knott, Holloway Boy and Dubai Mile.
The latter is hard to fancy given Charlie Johnston's comments that they go "in hope, not confidence" and that his main target is the Betfred Derby later in the season, while Karl Burke's Holloway Boy's form suggests he'll find one or two too good, despite an eye-catching jockey booking in Christophe Soumillon.
Silver Knott winning wouldn't be the biggest surprise, but trainer Charlie Appleby's form has to be a concern. At time of writing, the Newmarket handler has saddled just two winners from his last 15 runners, with seven beaten favourites at odds ranging from 4/9 to 11/4.
Horse Racing Odds
That leaves three - including short-priced favourite Auguste Rodin who's been all the rage since taking the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster in October last year.
Aidan O'Brien farms this race and his comments regarding this son of Deep Impact being a potential Triple Crown winner are worrying for those opposing him - and yet, I'm going to do exactly that.
He might be special, but we know the different rates at which juveniles improve at and for that reason alone I'm happy to let him win at the price. There's also a small argument that the Betfred Derby fav, whose two Group successes last term cam on soft and heavy ground, could find this a little bit too sharp.
So, the two I'll be going to war with are Andrew Balding's CHALDEAN and ROYAL SCOTSMAN for Paul & Oliver Cole.
The former technically falls under the 'has had a prep run' bracket, but given he unseated when leaving the stalls I'm not counting it. The Dewhurst winner's form is right up there, he goes on any ground and I have no doubts about the trip. Frankie Dettori, who is retiring at the end of the season, rides - what a fairytale that'd be...
Royal Scotsman was narrowly beaten by Chaldean in the Dewhurst but he was closing at the finish, suggesting he could improve past him over the mile. Connections are bullish about his chances on Saturday and so am I.
Login to bet on Betfred here
Welcome Offer - Bet £10 Get £30 in FREE Bets
New 18+ UK customers.
1st bet on sports of £10+ in one transaction at evens (2.0)+ settled within 7 days of registering.
£30 paid in free bets within 10 hours of bet settlement, 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply.
Full Terms & Conditions apply.
Register with Betfred
No comments:
Post a Comment