Canelo vs Ryder Predictions: Alvarez will win this one late

Adam Roberts

May 4

Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez puts his undisputed Super Middleweight titles on the line on Sunday morning, fighting at home in Mexico for the first time since 2011, against Britain's John Ryder . We've previewed the fight and given you our suggested bets for the occasion.

Canelo vs Ryder Predictions

Saul Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision - 3/10
Saul Alvarez to win in rounds 10-12 - 10/3
Saul Alvarez to win in round 11 - 14/1

'The King is coming home!'

It says a lot about this fight that the promotional video barely musters a mention of British challenger, John 'The Gorilla' Ryder.

In fact, Matchroom and Canelo have barely promoted the fight, with none of the usual pre fight documentary or behind the scenes series.

This fight is solely relying on the star power of Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez and will probably do a huge amount of PPV buys in Mexico and the US, as his fans tune in to see him fight again on 'Cinco de Mayo' weekend.

The boxing world won't put up with another Ryder-level fight though next time up and will be demanding the Mexican fights the likes of David Benavidez, or take on the rematch against Light Heavyweight Dmitry Bivol.

For Ryder, it's a complete and utter shot-to-nothing and it's an opportunity he has earnt. The 34-year-old has had an up and down career but back-to-back wins over Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker put him in to a mandatory position to fight Canelo.

If the southpaw Brit can somehow dethrone Canelo and shock the world, his career would enter a different stratosphere altogether. So what kind of chance does he have? Let's find out...

Bet on Canelo vs Ryder with Betfred here

Where and when is the fight taking place?

The fight is happening at the Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico in the early hours of Sunday, May 7th and will be broadcast live and exclusively on DAZN in the UK. The event is a co-promotion between Matchroom Boxing (Eddie Hearn) and CA Promotions (Canelo Alvarez). The show will start at around 12am, with the main ring walk taking place at around 4am, UK time.

What does the full fight card look like?

Main event: Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder – for WBA (Super), WBC, IBF and WBO super middleweight titles
Julio Cesar Martinez vs Ronal Batista – for WBC flyweight title
Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela vs Steve Spark
Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs Ricards Bolotniks
Nathan Devon Rodriguez vs Alexander Mejia
Bek Nurmaganbet vs Argenis Espana
Lawrence King vs Elio German Rafael
Abilkhan Amankul vs Jesus Moroyoqui Palomares
Johansen Alvarez Suarez vs Johan Rodriguez Arreguin
Carlos Rojo Vazquez vs Fabian Trejo Rivera
Jesus Larios vs Alejandro Curiel

(subject to change)

Who's the favourite?

Canelo is the huge 1/20 favourite for this one, with Ryder out at 8/1 to shock the boxing world. The draw is available at 25/1.

What's been said?

Alvarez:

"I feel great. It's unbelievable the things I've done all my life and all my career. I'm glad to be here, coming as the best fight. I'm bringing this fight to the people. It's an honour for me.

I don't want to be so confident because this is boxing. He's a dangerous fighter because he has nothing to lose.

He's a southpaw. He's coming hungry but I'm the best fighter."

Ryder:

"There's no denying that Canelo is one of the greats and I've got a lot of respect for what he's achieved in the sport but I fully believe this is my time to fulfil my dream of becoming a world champion.

I'm not going over there for a holiday. For me this is purely business and my full focus is on going into his backyard in Guadalajara on May 6 and bringing those belts back with me to the UK.

I've seen him mention (Dmitry) Bivol and (David) Benavidez.

Don't sleep on me. The only rematch you're having in September is with me at the Emirates (Stadium)."

Boxing Odds

Saul Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision - 3/10

Much as I'd like Ryder to pull off the ultimate shock and defeat Canelo, it's simply not going to happen. He has fought much better men and won.

Ryder is an awkward, durable, come forward south paw and can clearly bang and take a shot. However, he has never fought anyone of Canelo's level, elusiveness and handspeed.

I'm expecting the Brit to frustrate Alvarez in the early and mid rounds before Canelo starts to land some heavy combos and pushes the older man back.

'The Gorilla' has only lost once by KO, to Nick Blackwell back in 2015 but I think this will end in his 2nd knockout loss after the Mexican unloads on him late in the fight.

Saul Alvarez to win in rounds 10-12 - 10/3

Alvarez has a tendency to drag his fights out and only two of his last eight fights have ended before the 9th round.

More so, those other six fights ended in either the 11th or 12th round, or went the distance.

With Ryder possessing a good set of whiskers and Canelo wanting to put a show on for his Mexican homeland, I think this one could get dragged out to the Championship rounds.

Saul Alvarez to win in round 11 - 14/1

Doubling down on those earlier stats, I'm going to have a small fun bet on Canelo to win by KO in the penultimate round.

He did so against both Caleb Plant and Sergey Kovalev.

Enjoy the fight and good luck!

*All prices correct at the time of writing.