Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Q3 Forisk News Newsletter

Q3 Forisk News

Since the previous Forisk News went to press,the Forisk team presented research, participated in podcasts and media interviews, and delivered workshops on forest management, pulp mills and wood fiber markets, timberland investments, and mill capital investments to audiences and conferences in the EU, Florida, Georgia, Oregon, and South Carolina. 

Coming Soon: Pulp Sector White Paper


Forisk will be publishing a comprehensive white paper examining the structural market pressures and policy opportunities facing the U.S. pulp and paper sector at the end of August. Authored by Brooks Mendell and Amanda Lange, the report is built on structured interviews with executives and managers representing wood-consuming operating assets across the US.


Contact Nick DiLuzio (ndiluzio@forisk.com) if you are interested in receiving a copy of the white paper when published. 

Recent Highlights from Forisk's Blog


Follow the links below to read Forisk's recent analysis related to timberland ownership, mill investments, and wood fiber prices. Click here to go directly to Forisk's blog page where you can sign up to get notified about new posts!


Next Forisk Class:

Timber Market Analysis

September 30 - October 1


Taught once per year, this live virtual class walks through the process to understand, track, and analyze the price, demand, supply, and competitive dynamics of local timber markets and wood baskets using case studies. It is divided into two half-days of course content where Day 2 builds on Day 1. Recordings will be available afterwards.

 

Attendees receive digital copies of course materials, including Excel templates to conduct and deliver assessments of wood baskets and timber markets to clients and managers.

 

Registration is now open, with the early registration discount available until September 16th!

 

Each day of this class qualifies for 3.0 hours of Continuing Education credit, with a combined total of 6.0 hours for both days. CE credits include: CFE (forestry), CLE/MTH (GA Master Timber Harvester/Logger), Georgia Real Estate/Appraiser, and CPE (Accountancy).

Select Findings from the Q3 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ)

The Q3 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) includes industry analysis and market forecasts through 2035 for timber prices, logging costs, lumber and panel production, paper and paperboard, forest supplies, and wood bioenergy markets.


Q3 2026 AT A GLANCE

  • Single family housing starts decreased 4.2% in Q2 relative to last year, while multifamily starts increased 7.7%.
  • North American softwood lumber production rose 1% quarter-over-quarter but fell 4% year-over-year through Q1 2026. Through May 2026, year-over-year U.S. softwood lumber imports declined 18% and hardwood lumber increased 5%.
  • Southern stumpage prices decrease 4% in the U.S. South for 2026 while pulpwood prices fall 10%. In the Pacific Northwest, domestic Douglas-fir and hemlock prices increased in Q2 2026.


To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) subscription, click here or contact Nick DiLuzio (ndiluzio@forisk.com).

WHY IT MATTERS

Forisk research examining market pressures and policy opportunities across the U.S. pulp and paper sector draws on over a dozen structured interviews and conversations with industry executives.



Pulp and paper is a capital-intensive sector. Firms compete nationally and globally on end-products but operate locally with respect to wood fiber economics and state-level policies.

CATEGORY

CURRENT SNAPSHOT

NOTEABLE CHANGE SINCE LAST QUARTER

Macro & Housing

GDP +1.5% annualized, Q2 2026

Down from +2.1% in Q1 2026

Lumber

NA softwood production ▼4% YoY, Q1 2026

U.S. softwood lumber imports ▼18% YoY (May 2026)

Structural Panels

U.S. OSB prices ▼ 1% Q2 QoQ

$1.4B in new panel capacity investment through 2027

Pulp & Paper

Paper & paperboard production ▼4% YTD

Packaging ▲2.8% YoY in Q2 2026

Wood Bioenergy

90.8M green tons/yr targeted by screened projects

U.S. South leads all regions in projects and demand

Log & Chip Exports

U.S. South softwood log exports ▲90% YoY

Total U.S. softwood log exports ▲21% YoY

Timberland Investments

Public timber REITs +4.8% YTD (through July 31)

980K ac. of timberland deals closed, last 4 quarters

Forest Operations

U.S. logging employment ▼3% in 2025

Logging wages ▲3.5%+ U.S., ▲4% Canada

Timber Markets, U.S. South

Southern stumpage prices decreased for all products in Q2 2026

2026 forecast implies ▼4% vs. 2025

Log Prices, Pacific NW

Douglas-fir J-sort export prices ▲4%

Logging & hauling costs rise 4-6% over 10 years

Hardwood Markets, U.S. North

Forisk Hardwood Price Index +2% YoY

White oak stumpage pushed to 5-year highs in mid-Atlantic

Special Research Featured in the Q3 FRQ Report

Featured Research Article: Timber Trajectories in Turbulent Times

Our featured research investigates forest supply changes in the U.S. South and Pacific Northwest. Challenges differ in each region, with harvesting restrictions and policy changes pressuring private timber supplies in the West, while land use conversions and pulpwood market contractions affect forest management in the South. We review implications for timberland owners and investors. 

 

Market Update, Q3 2026: In this edition of quarterly observations and summary analysis of forest industry trends, we first assess softwood lumber manufacturing costs over time. Then, we check on the EUDR. Finally, we share the next “Reading the FRQ” guide.


Forisk Facts & Figures: Forisk’s quarterly “story in three slides” summarizes Forisk’s U.S. South pellet production forecast and ranks each Southern export-oriented pellet production facility for closure risk under Western Europe subsidy scheme changes. 

Top North American OSB Producers Include #1 West Fraser and #2 Louisiana-Pacific

Each quarter, Forisk compiles data on mill activity through its ongoing tracking of wood-using facilities as part of Forisk’s North American Forest Industry Capacity Database (Mill Capacity Database).


This release provides a ranking of the top OSB producers in North America and the U.S. Forisk’s data confirms that West Fraser was the largest producer of OSB, both in the U.S. and in North America. Louisiana-Pacific was the second-largest producer. Read the full Research Release here. 

Increased Fuel Costs Challenge Wood Fiber Markets in Q2

The Forisk Wood Fiber Review (FWFR) reports a 3% decrease in U.S. weighted average pricing for roundwood and chips (combined) in Q2 2026, down 11% from Q2 2025. The same prices in Canada were up 3% for the quarter and up 1% year-over-year. Softwood roundwood prices were flat or down in all U.S. regions as buyers experienced ample supply while consuming inventory to mitigate elevated fuel costs. Residual chip prices varied across U.S. regions, down in the Northwest and Southeast and flat or up slightly in other regions. The geopolitical uncertainty around the U.S. war with Iran fueled rising energy prices across the U.S. and Canada in Q2, impacting operations, transportation, and end-product demand. Read the full Research Release here.

Forisk In The News & Upcoming Presentations

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Q3 Forisk News Newsletter

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